Adaptation is the only strategy that is guaranteed to be part of the world's climate strategy. Using the
most comprehensive set of data files ever compiled on mortality and its determinants over the course
of the 20th century, this paper makes two primary discoveries. First, we find that the mortality effect
of an extremely hot day declined by about 80% between 1900-1959 and 1960-2004. As a consequence,
days with temperatures exceeding 90°F were responsible for about 600 premature fatalities annually
in the 1960-2004 period, compared to the approximately 3,600 premature fatalities that would have
occurred if the temperature-mortality relationship from before 1960 still prevailed. Second, the adoption
of residential air conditioning (AC) explains essentially the entire decline in the temperature-mortality
relationship. In contrast, increased access to electricity and health care seem not to affect mortality
on extremely hot days. Residential AC appears to be both the most promising technology to help poor
countries mitigate the temperature related mortality impacts of climate change and, because fossil
fuels are the least expensive source of energy, a technology whose proliferation will speed up the rate
of climate change. |
