Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health

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IZA Seminar

Place: Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 9, 53113 Bonn

Date: 22.04.2008, 12:15 - 13:30


Presentation by 

Pierre-Carl Michaud (HEC Montreal)


Much attention has focused on the economic consequences of increased life expectancy and demographic aging in the years to come. However, the economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy - with a concomitant decrease in the annuity burden - but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status that increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. We attempt to quantify the economic consequences of shifting trends in population health in an international context by contrasting US and European health. We then use microsimulation to model medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). This simulation is used to compare outcomes under a variety of population health scenarios.

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