Much attention has focused on the economic consequences of increased
life expectancy and demographic aging in the years to come. However,
the economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains
uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases
could reduce life expectancy - with a concomitant decrease in the annuity
burden - but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status
that increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases
public assistance. We attempt to quantify the economic consequences of
shifting trends in population health in an international context by
contrasting US and European health. We then use microsimulation to
model medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues,
and government expenditures (including Social Security and income
assistance). This simulation is used to compare outcomes under a variety
of population health scenarios. |
