COVID-19 drove a mass social experiment in working from home (WFH). We survey more than
30,000 Americans over multiple waves to investigate whether WFH will stick, and why. Our data
say that 20 percent of full workdays will be supplied from home after the pandemic ends,
compared with just 5 percent before. We develop evidence on five reasons for this large shift:
better-than-expected WFH experiences, new investments in physical and human capital that
enable WFH, greatly diminished stigma associated with WFH, lingering concerns about crowds
and contagion risks, and a pandemic-driven surge in technological innovations that support WFH.
We also use our survey data to project three consequences: First, employees will enjoy large
benefits from greater remote work, especially those with higher earnings. Second, the shift to
WFH will directly reduce spending in major city centers by at least 5-10 percent relative to the
pre-pandemic situation. Third, our data on employer plans and the relative productivity of WFH
imply a 5 percent productivity boost in the post-pandemic economy due to re-optimized working
arrangements. Only one-fifth of this productivity gain will show up in conventional productivity
measures, because they do not capture the time savings from less commuting. |
