East Side Story: Historical Pollution and Persistent Neighborhood Sortin
(takes place in SLS 5)

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IZA Seminar

Place: Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 9, 53113 Bonn

Date: 06.12.2016, 12:00 - 13:30

   

Presentation by 

Stephan Heblich (University of Toronto)
   

Abstract:

Why are the East sides of former industrial cities like London or New York
poorer and more deprived? We argue that this is the result of prevailing wind
patterns causing higher concentrations of industrial pollution in the East side
of these cities. To capture this empirically, we geolocate nearly 5,000 industrial
chimneys in 70 English cities around the year 1880 and use an atmospheric
dispersion model to predict where their smoke would have drifted. Individuallevel
census data for 1881 show that pollution induced neighbourhood sorting
with the working class population residing in the East. These equilibria persist
to this day. Historical pollution patterns explain up to 20% of modern withincity
deprivation even though the pollution that initially caused it has now
waned. A quantitative model shows the role of non-linearities and tippinglike
behaviors in such persistence.

   
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