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IZA/OECD Workshop: Economic Crisis, Rising Unemployment and Policy Responses: What Does It Mean for the Income Distribution?

Organizers: Andreas Peichl (IZA), Herwig Immervoll (OECD and IZA)
Location:Paris, France
Date:February 08, 2010 - February 09, 2010

Event Manager:

Ulrike Maurer (IZA)

Macro-level changes can have substantial effects on the distribution of resources at the individual and household levels. This is becoming starkly evident following the onset of the current severe global economic downturn. Identification of appropriate policy responses that aim at supporting vulnerable groups are hampered by how little is known about the likely distribution of changes in (un)employment and market income. There are a range of possible techniques to assess how changes in macro variables “feed through” to individual households. An important contribution of this technical workshop is to clarify the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches and work towards a set of commonly-agreed principles.


Program

+++ presentation: 20 minutes +++ discussant: 5 minutes +++ keynote: 45 minutes +++ general discussion: 10 minutes +++

Monday, February 08:

08:30       Registration
 
09:00 - 09:15   Welcome Address by John P. Martin (Director of Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD, and IZA)
 
09:14       Session 1
  Chair: Tony Atkinson (Nuffield College, Oxford)
 
09:15 - 10:10   Keynote 1
The Impact of Rising Unemployment on Income Distribution in the OECD
David G. Blanchflower
(Dartmouth College and IZA)
 
10:10 - 10:45   Richard Berthoud (University of Essex)
  "Patterns of Non-Employment, and of Disadvantage, during a Recession"
  Discussant: Jeffrey Thompson (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
 
10:45 - 11:15   Coffee Break
 
10:59       Session 2
  Chair: John P. Martin (OECD and IZA)
 
11:15 - 11:50   Cathal O'Donoghue (Teagasc Rural Economy Research Centre and IZA)
  "The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Ireland"
  Discussant: Yelena F. Takhtamanova (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
 
11:50 - 12:25   Brian Nolan (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin), Tim Callan (ESRI and IZA), John Walsh (ESRI and IZA)
  "The Economic Crisis, Public Versus Private Sector Pay, and the Income Distribution"
  Discussant: Richard Berthoud (University of Essex)
 
12:25 - 14:00   Lunch
 
13:59       Session 3
  Chair: Stefano Scarpetta (OECD and IZA)
 
14:00 - 14:35   Jeffrey Thompson (University of Massachusetts Amherst), Timothy M. Smeeding (University of Wisconsin, Madison)
  "Recent Trends in Income from Wealth and Income from Labor: Stocks, Flows and More Complete Measures of Well Being"
  Discussant: Rosa M. Fernández (University of Oxford)
 
14:35 - 15:10   Yelena F. Takhtamanova (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), Eva Sierminska (CEPS/INSTEAD)
  "Job flows, Demographics and the Financial Crisis"
  Discussant: Tindara Addabbo (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia)
 
15:10 - 15:45   Lutz Bellmann (IAB, Nürnberg and IZA), Hans-Dieter Gerner (IAB, Nürnberg)
  "Reversed Roles? Wage Effects of the Current Crisis"
  Discussant: Francesco D'Amuri (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM))
 
15:45 - 16:15   Coffee Break
 
16:14       Session 4
  Chair: Olivier Bargain (University College Dublin and IZA)
 
16:15 - 16:50   Francesco D'Amuri (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM))
  "The Impact of the Current Crisis on the Italian Labour Market"
  Discussant: Francesco Figari (ISER, University of Essex)
 
16:50 - 17:25   Tindara Addabbo (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia), Fahima Aziz (Hamline University), John Reardon (Hamline University)
  "Income Distribution and the Effect of the Financial Crisis on the Italian and USA Labour Markets"
  Discussant: Hans-Dieter Gerner (IAB, Nürnberg)
 
17:30       Cocktail Reception
 
20:00       Workshop Dinner
 

Tuesday, February 09:

08:59       Session 5
  Chair: Herwig Immervoll (OECD and IZA)
 
09:00 - 09:55   Keynote 2
Economic Downturn and Stress testing European Welfare Systems
Holly Sutherland
(ISER), Francesco Figari (ISER), Andrea Salvatori (ISER and IZA)
 
09:55 - 10:30   Clemens Fuest (University of Oxford and IZA), Andreas Peichl (IZA), Mathias Dolls (University of Cologne and IZA)
  "Automatic Stabilizers and Economic Crisis: US vs. Europe"
  Discussant: Cathal O'Donoghue (Teagasc Rural Economy Research Centre and IZA)
 
10:30 - 11:00   Coffee Break
 
10:59       Session 6
  Chair: Holly Sutherland (ISER, University of Essex)
 
11:00 - 11:35   Nicolas Herault (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research)
  "Sequential Linking of Computable General Equilibrium and Microsimulation Models"
  Discussant: Michael Feil (IAB, Nürnberg)
 
11:35 - 12:10   Michael Feil (IAB, Nürnberg)
  "How wages and employment might change by the economic crisis"
  Discussant: Nicolas Herault (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research)
 
12:10 - 13:30   Lunch
 
13:29       Session 7
  Chair: Cathal O'Donoghue (Teagasc Rural Economy Research Centre and IZA)
 
13:30 - 14:25   Keynote 3
Consumption and Income Inequality in the U.S.: 1960-2008
Bruce Meyer
(University of Chicago), James X. Sullivan (University of Notre Dame)
 
14:25 - 15:00   Sebastian Siegloch (IZA and IZA), Oliver Bargain (University College Dublin and IZA), Herwig Immervoll (OECD and IZA), Andreas Peichl (IZA)
  "Who are the Losers of the Labour-Market Downturn? A Scenario Analysis for Germany"
  Discussant: Tim Callan (ESRI, Dublin and IZA)
 
15:00 - 15:30   Coffee Break
 
15:30 - 17:00   Panel Discussion:
Chair: Brian Nolan (University College Dublin)

Which Boats are Stranded by a Falling Tide? Forward-Looking Income Distribution Scenarios for Informing Policy Responses: Promises and Limits

Anthony B. Atkinson (Nuffield College)
Tim Callan (ESRI)
Holly Sutherland (ISER)
Francois Bourguignon (Paris School of Economics)

 
17:00 - 17:15   Closing Remarks
 




Participants

Tindara Addabbo (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia)
Anthony B. Atkinson (Nuffield College)
Olivier Bargain (University College Dublin)
Lutz Bellmann (IAB, Nürnberg)
Richard Berthoud (University of Essex)
David G. Blanchflower (Dartmouth College)
Francois Bourguignon (Paris School of Economics)
Tim Callan (ESRI)
Francesco D'Amuri (Bank of Italy and ISER)
Mathias Dolls (University of Cologne and IZA)
Michael Feil (IAB, Nürnberg)
Rosa Maria Fernandez (Universidad de Granada)
Francesco Figari (ISER)
Clemens Fuest (University of Oxford)
Hans-Dieter Gerner (IAB, Nürnberg)
Nicolas Herault (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research)
Herwig Immervoll (OECD)
John P. Martin (OECD)
Bruce Meyer (University of Chicago)
Brian Nolan (University College Dublin)
Cathal O'Donoghue (Teagasc Rural Economy Research Centre)
Andreas Peichl (IZA)
Stefano Scarpetta (OECD Paris)
Sebastian Siegloch (IZA)
Holly Sutherland (ISER)
Yelena Takhtamanova (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Jeffrey Thompson (University of Massachusetts Amherst)